With the current federal funding set to expire at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, December 21, the United States faces the risk of a government shutdown. The situation arises from ongoing debates over a spending bill, leaving critical questions about how various services and payments may be impacted right before the holiday season.
Why is a Shutdown Looming?
The possibility of a government shutdown stems from the rejection of a proposed spending bill, which aimed to extend funding through March 14. House Speaker Mike Johnson scrapped the bill following opposition from several Republicans, including President-elect Donald Trump, who criticized the inclusion of billions of dollars in additional spending.
Adding to the dissent, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a billionaire who invested nearly $300 million in support of Trump and other Republican candidates during the November elections, labeled the spending bill as “terrible.” Musk took to X (formerly Twitter) to celebrate the bill’s withdrawal, declaring, “The voice of the people has triumphed!”
Despite the setbacks, House Republicans have introduced a new proposal to extend funding through the spring. A vote on this revised bill is anticipated soon, potentially offering a way to avert a shutdown.
What Happens During a Government Shutdown?
If a shutdown occurs, federal agencies are typically prohibited from disbursing funds, with exceptions for essential activities that safeguard life and property. This leads to furloughs for many government employees, while others providing critical services—like law enforcement and air traffic control—continue working without pay.
After a shutdown ends, federal workers receive retroactive compensation, but the interim period can be financially challenging. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, which lasted over 30 days, many government employees turned to food banks and community aid to make ends meet.
Key Services That Could Be Affected
Social Security Payments
Recipients of Social Security benefits, numbering approximately 67 million, will continue to receive their payments uninterrupted, as these funds are mandated by existing laws that do not require annual renewal. Similarly, Medicare services will remain operational, ensuring seniors have access to their medications and treatments.
However, the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) discretionary budget relies on congressional approval. This means some SSA services, such as benefit verification and new applications, may experience delays.
Air Travel and TSA Operations
The holiday season coincides with heightened air travel, raising concerns about delays caused by a shutdown. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents and air traffic controllers are deemed essential and would work without pay.
The TSA has indicated that 59,000 out of its 62,000 employees will remain on duty during a shutdown. Nevertheless, the agency warns that an extended funding lapse could lead to longer airport wait times, especially as 40 million passengers are expected to travel through January 2.
U.S. Postal Service (USPS)
The USPS, being an independent agency, operates unaffected by government shutdowns. Mail delivery and post office operations will continue as usual.
Military and Defense Personnel
Active-duty members of the military and federal law enforcement officers will continue to fulfill their duties but won’t receive paychecks until a new spending bill is passed. Meanwhile, most civilian employees of the Department of Defense would be furloughed.
If the shutdown extends into January, the scheduled 4.5% pay increase for military personnel in their first 2025 paycheck could face delays.
Other Government Services
Shutdowns often disrupt various services, such as:
- Environmental inspections by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- Food inspections managed by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
- National parks, which may close entirely
- Tax-related services provided by the IRS, although tax deadlines, such as January 15 quarterly payments, remain in effect
Potential Duration of a Shutdown
According to a Goldman Sachs research note from December 18, the likelihood of a prolonged shutdown appears low. The analysts suggest that a revised spending package, adjusted to address Trump’s objections, could pass before the December 21 deadline.
While Trump opposed certain spending additions, he has expressed support for the bill’s primary components, such as disaster relief and agricultural aid, indicating room for negotiation.
Impacts of a Government Shutdown: Summary Table
| Service/Department | Status During Shutdown | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Social Security | Payments continue | Administrative delays may occur |
| Medicare | Operational | No disruption to medications or treatments |
| TSA and Air Travel | Essential personnel work without pay | Expect potential delays at airports |
| USPS | Unaffected | Mail delivery continues as usual |
| Military | Active-duty personnel work without pay | Civilian workers mostly furloughed |
| National Parks | Likely to close | Operations halted due to funding gaps |
| Environmental Inspections | Halted | Includes EPA activities |
| Tax Filing (IRS) | Limited services | Deadlines remain but delays in assistance possible |
FAQs
Will Social Security checks be delayed during the shutdown?
No, Social Security checks will continue to be issued as usual since the program’s funding is mandated by permanent laws.
Can military personnel expect their January paychecks on time?
Not during a shutdown. Paychecks for active-duty members could be delayed until Congress approves a new spending bill.
Are TSA workers guaranteed to work during a shutdown?
Yes, TSA agents are classified as essential employees and will continue working, albeit without pay during the shutdown.
